Global Director, Forecasting – Infectious Disease

The Director is a senior global forecasting leader responsible for demand forecasting across the Infectious Disease portfolio, spanning early-stage, late-stage, and in-market assets, as well as business development and investment case building. The role serves as the global forecasting lead and strategic thought partner to Early Commercial, Finance, Market Access & Pricing, Marketing, Medical, Research & Development, and Business Development teams. The position also includes vendor and resource management to ensure rigorous use of data and analytics within forecasting, continuous improvement of forecasting approaches, and delivery of decision-grade commercial assessments. Time allocation may vary by business cycle and portfolio priorities. 

You’ll play a critical role in shaping global commercial expectations, portfolio choices, risk and opportunity framing, and executive decision-making for early-stage, late-stage, in-market, and external business development opportunities. 

What you’ll do 

Global Forecasting Leadership (Core Accountability) 

• Lead global short- and long-term demand forecasts—including patients, volume, treatment starts, and revenue—for ID assets using robust patient-based and market-based models. 

• Own forecast methodology, assumptions, and governance, ensuring objectivity, transparency, and consistency with enterprise standards. 

• Develop and refine forecasts for early-stage, late-stage assets to support stage-gate decisions, portfolio prioritization, investment choices, and resource allocation. 

• Use primary market research, epidemiology, competitive intelligence, access and pricing dynamics, real-world evidence, and other relevant data and analytics to inform forecast assumptions and models. 

• Proactively identify and quantify key risks and opportunities through scenario and sensitivity analyses. 

• Partner closely with Early Commercial, Finance, Market Access & Pricing, Marketing, Medical, Research & Development, Business Development, and regional or market teams to ensure alignment on assumptions and implications. 

• Support global business planning, governance reviews, portfolio decisions, and opportunity assessments with clear, executive-ready narratives. 

• Serve as a trusted advisor to senior global leaders, clearly articulating forecast drivers, changes, uncertainties, and strategic implications. 

Business Development and Investment Case Building 

• Lead forecasting and commercial case development for business development opportunities, including in-licensing, partnerships, acquisitions, and other external innovation opportunities. 

• Build patient-based market models, revenue forecasts, risk-adjusted scenarios, and commercial inputs to valuation and investment cases. 

• Conduct commercial due diligence by assessing unmet need, patient pathways, market evolution, competitive dynamics, access and pricing considerations, and strategic fit. 

• Translate incomplete or uncertain evidence into transparent assumptions, scenarios, trade-offs, and recommendations for governance and executive decision-making. 

• Ensure alignment between business development forecasts, internal pipeline forecasts, therapeutic area strategy, and portfolio planning. 

Forecasting Capability and Resource Leadership 

• Ensure relevant data, analytics, and insights are applied appropriately to forecasting, scenario development, and business case building. 

• Manage and prioritize internal forecasters, contractors, and external vendors supporting forecasting and business development deliverables. 

• Partner with data and analytics specialists, Global IA&F, and GIBEX capability teams to evaluate and deploy data sources, tools, and modeling approaches that strengthen forecasts. 

• Identify opportunities to embed AI and automation into forecasting workflows to improve efficiency, scalability, transparency, and decision quality. 

• Champion continuous improvement in forecasting processes, AI-enabled modeling, and automation. 

• Contribute to the development and sharing of global best practices across the ID forecasting community. 

Essential for the role 

• Bachelor’s degree in a quantitative, scientific, health, or business-related field, such as Statistics, Economics, Mathematics, Engineering, Life Sciences, or Decision Science. 

• 4+ years’ experience in global pharmaceutical commercial forecasting, including early-stage, late-stage, launch, and/or in-market assets. 

• Experience supporting business development evaluations, commercial due diligence, opportunity assessments, or investment case development. 

• Hands-on model ownership experience, including build, refresh, and performance tracking across short- and long-term horizons. 

• Expertise in scenario-based forecasting, sensitivity analysis, and driver-based narratives to support senior decision-making. 

• Strong capability using multiple data and evidence sources—such as epidemiology, claims, real-world evidence, syndicated data, competitive intelligence, and primary research—to build coherent, decision-grade forecasts. 

• Demonstrated forecast governance and model risk discipline, including traceable assumptions, documentation, and clear explanations. 

• Strong understanding of global market access, pricing, reimbursement, policy, and regional market dynamics and how they affect demand. 

• Ability to translate complex forecasts and supporting evidence into clear, executive-ready insights, options, and recommendations. 

• Strong commercial and financial acumen across key demand and valuation levers, including positioning, adoption, competition, lifecycle events, probability of technical and regulatory success, and risk adjustment.

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Desirable for the role 

• Advanced degree, such as an MBA, MS, MPH, or PhD in Economics, Statistics, Decision Sciences, Life Sciences, or a related field. 

• Infectious Disease and/or Rare Disease experience, including familiarity with immunization dynamics, patient-based forecasting, and lifecycle management in preventive or infectious disease therapies. 

• Experience forecasting across multiple geographies and working with global, regional, and market stakeholders. 

• Demonstrated ability to work effectively with ambiguity and limited evidence in early-asset and business development settings. 

• Change leadership: builds adoption for new tools, processes, and ways of working across cross-functional stakeholders. 

• Product perspective for forecasting: defines user needs, success measures, and a roadmap for global portfolio forecasting capabilities.