Associate Director, Commercial Forecasting

Job overview:  

The Associate Director, Commercial Forecasting plays a pivotal role in driving Compass Pathways' commercial success by developing accurate sales unit forecasts, including demand volumes, ex-factory volumes, and inventory across short, medium, and long-term horizons. 

This position partners closely with Commercial leadership, Market Access, FP&A, and operational stakeholders to incorporate key market drivers such as growth dynamics, contracting scenarios, payer mix, and patient services into flexible, scenario-based models that support strategic decision-making and quarterly financial submissions. 

Location: Home based on the East Coast, US or hybrid in your New York City office.  

Reporting to: Senior Director, FP&A.  

Roles and responsibilities:
(include but not limited to) 

• Develop commercial sales unit forecasts, including demand volumes, ex-factory volumes and inventory for short, medium and long term forecasts  

• Develop and maintain forecast assumptions for broader market to understand unfolding market dynamics  (market growth, market share expectations, impact of potential market entrants etc.)  

• Partner with Market Access to understand volume implications of potential contracting scenarios and/or patient services programs  

• Ensure forecast models maintain flexibility to support scenario planning for various outcomes, documenting key underlying assumptions for each scenario   

• Develop key metric tracker and report budget vs actuals vs most recent forecast submission  

• Partner closely with Commercial leadership to identify all key underlying drivers and data sources to incorporate into forecast models (market research, expected contracting / payer decisions, patient services offerings, payer mix dynamics, persistency etc.)  

• Partner with various stakeholders to understand key outputs for other key operational deliverables (Supply chain, Commercial Operations etc.)   

• Support FP&A/accounting partners with key monthly/quarterly deliverables including related to underlying forecast assumptions with GTN implications  

• Develop robust review materials to gain consensus with Commercial leadership on forecast ranges and underlying assumptions in advance of quarterly financial submissions 

• Ensure that all forecasting deliverables and reviews are performed within the timelines set forth by the FP&A / Corporate calendar   

Candidate Profile: 

• BA/BS in a quant or related field is required (advanced degree is a preferred)   

• 8+ years pharma/life sciences experience   

• Extensive experience in Commercial forecasting   

• Specialty product experience is preferred  

• Advanced Excel modeling and strong PowerPoint skills required  

• Deep knowledge and understanding of relevant data sets (claims, national/subnational, patient services, specialty pharmacy, market research outputs etc.)  

• Demonstrated ability to work in a self directed manner with strong problem solving skills  

• Excellent communication skills with the ability to translate complex modelling concepts into presentations for executive level management 

• Experience working in a highly matrixed environment